Cal-Maine Says Egg Supply Is Rebalancing

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Cal-Maine CEO Sherman Miller said industry indicators point to a possible rebalancing of U.S. conventional egg supply and demand, including a smaller-than-expected layer flock and fewer chicks hatched from breeder eggs. He cautioned that the indicators do not establish that prices are about to turn, and the company cannot predict when the oversupply will end.

Cal-Maine Foods says several industry measures suggest the U.S. conventional egg market may be moving toward a better balance between supply and demand, but CEO Sherman Miller cautioned that the signs do not establish when the current glut or pressure on wholesale prices will end. On the company’s Sept. 30 earnings call, Miller pointed to a smaller layer-hen flock than previously estimated, fewer chicks hatched from breeder eggs and a slight decline in monthly egg-case production.

Miller cited figures from the American Egg Board’s September report, including an estimated U.S. layer flock of 336 million to 343 million hens, about 4 million below earlier estimates. The report also put breeder-egg hatch numbers 12% lower year to date. Estimated monthly production over the previous three months edged down to 19.9 million cases, compared with the prior report. These measures may indicate that supply growth is easing; they do not establish that the market has turned.

The company also pointed to demand data. Miller said U.S. retail egg volume rose about 4% from January through August compared with the same period a year earlier, citing market-measurement company NielsenIQ. He said sales in the four weeks through Aug. 29 were slightly higher, while the average price per dozen was down about 27%. Cal-Maine said it had seen no structural weakness in egg demand across retail, food service and exports.

The weak pricing environment has hit Cal-Maine’s conventional shell egg business. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, conventional shell egg sales fell 59.5% year over year to $201.7 million, according to the company. The source report said the ongoing oversupply has depressed wholesale prices and Cal-Maine’s profits; it did not provide a forecast for when either will recover.

How Lower Prices Affect Cal-Maine

The supply shift matters to consumers and producers for different reasons. For shoppers, the reported 27% decline in average price per dozen over the four weeks through Aug. 29 means eggs were less expensive on that measure than in the comparison period described by Miller. Lower prices may also support buying, though the company’s statement does not establish how long consumers will see those prices or what will happen next.

For Cal-Maine, the same low-price environment is a financial pressure: conventional shell egg sales fell sharply in the reported quarter. If supply tightens relative to demand, wholesale prices could eventually improve, but the timing and scale of any recovery are unknown. Miller’s remarks describe indicators, not a confirmed price rebound. Retail prices also need not move in step with wholesale prices at the same time or by the same amount.

From Shortage to Surplus

The market has shifted from the shortage conditions of the previous year. The source report said an avian influenza outbreak killed more than 145 million U.S. birds, contributing to shortages and high egg prices. The later buildup in supply has reversed that pressure, leaving conventional eggs in surplus and pushing prices down.

The American Egg Board, an industry-funded organization, attributed the oversupply to elevated flock numbers, strong hen productivity and exports that were insufficient to absorb additional production. Its September estimates and production measures provide the context for Cal-Maine’s assessment, but they are not proof that supply and demand have reached balance.

“These indicators do not establish that the market will turn, but they provide important context on the potential direction of supply.”

— Sherman Miller, Cal-Maine Foods president and CEO

Price Recovery Has No Timeline

Cal-Maine has not said when the oversupply will end, and Miller said the company cannot predict when wholesale prices will recover. The figures cited show changes in flock estimates, hatch numbers, production and retail demand, but they do not confirm that supply and demand are balanced or that prices have reached a low point.

The source report does not provide updated figures beyond those cited on the call, a specific wholesale-price forecast, or an estimate of how quickly retail prices might respond if supply tightens. It is also unclear whether the demand trends will persist through the fall and holiday season or how much exports will contribute to absorbing U.S. production.

Watch Fall Demand and Production

The next indicators to watch are updated layer-flock and hatchery figures, monthly egg-case production, and sales across retail, food service and export markets. Miller cited fall baking and the holidays as a seasonally stronger period for demand, but described the effect of affordability and promotions as an expectation rather than a guaranteed outcome.

Future company results and industry reports should show whether the lower production signals continue and whether demand absorbs more of the available supply. Until those figures establish a clearer trend, Cal-Maine’s assessment remains that the market may be rebalancing, with no stated timetable for a wholesale-price recovery.

Key Questions

What does Cal-Maine mean by egg supply rebalancing?

It means the company sees indicators that supply may be moving closer to demand, including a smaller estimated hen flock, fewer chicks hatched from breeder eggs and slightly lower monthly case production. Cal-Maine has not said the market is balanced now.

Have wholesale egg prices started to recover?

The report does not confirm a wholesale-price recovery. CEO Sherman Miller said the indicators do not establish that the market will turn, and Cal-Maine cannot predict when the oversupply will end.

What happened to Cal-Maine’s conventional egg sales?

Conventional shell egg sales fell 59.5% year over year to $201.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, according to the company.

What demand figures did Cal-Maine cite?

Miller said retail egg volume rose about 4% from January through August compared with a year earlier, citing NielsenIQ. He also said sales in the four weeks through Aug. 29 were slightly higher, while the average price per dozen was down about 27%.

Source: rss